Ted Robinson’s Matchpoints

A little tennis and a little culture from Roland Garros:

Not a great day for tennis - Serbia was the winner as the three standouts advanced to the semis. Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic won easily while talented Ernests Gulbis tested Novak Djokovic. Clearly seen, though, was that Gulbis must overcome a lack of training in Latvia. A hurry-up dose of experience and wisdom will give him the chance to be a Top 10 player.

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Big loser was Nicolas Almagro. Strong clay court results in the anonymity of lower tier tournaments do not translate into success at a Slam. Hate to be this strong but Almagro’s effort was pitiful. Court Chatrier is the biggest clay court stage in the world and he simply did not compete at anything approaching an acceptable level. Too often did Almagro stand still and watch Rafa Nadal winners fly by.

Can Nadal be better on clay? In the last four rounds, he has lost 17 games in 12 sets.

Junior focus: Ryan Harrison, 16, lost in 3 sets but in a Tennis Channel interview sounded amazingly poised. And he voiced the truth that must change for the US to ever truly hope of succeeding at Roland Garros — the clay here is not at all like the clay Harrison had played on at home. We must offer our best players the chance to train on red clay.

Pat McEnroe offered an interesting take on Melanie Oudin, the No. 1 seed in RG’s junior girls competition. Pat raved about her fight. It’s necessary for Oudin, from the Atlanta area, stands just 5-4. Unless she finds a height burst, it will be exceedingly difficult to project Oudin as a champion, but a good pro career is within reach due to her powerful ball striking and exceptional competitiveness.

Wednesday:
Women’s quarters find Svetlana Kuznetova facing first-timer Kaia Kanepi. Kuznetsova has the experience and the ability to withstand Kanepi’s power. Dinara Safina tries to reach her first Slam semi as she faces Elena Dementieva. But Elena has experience on her side in this matchup and has reduced her double fault problems. Is Dementieva ever favored in a big match?

Roger Federer is placed on the second court for his quarter with Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzo is playing more wisely on clay, an endorsement of coach Larry Stefanki, but history (10-1 Fed) and weather (heavy and damp) favors Federer.

Can Gael Monfils handle the moment? He’ll have a huge vibe in his favor but a tireless opponent across the net in David Ferrer. Ferrer should be too consistent for the erratic Monfils.

Culture notes:
My hotel TV carries a dozen Arabic channels, including Al Jazeera TV. The English-speaking channel has a US studio, incredibly clear pictures and the startling sights to an American viewer of women anchors in Muslim head wear.

BBC News, also available here, covers the US elections as if it were theirs. Interesting to frame the coverage here with Bill Clinton’s eternal popularity on this continent.

The lamentable state of our news coverage is evident at all times here. Multiple networks available here, including CNN International, cover Zimbabwe, the Pakistani suicide bombing and the aftermath of the China earthquake far more comprehensively than anything most of us see at home.

Headlines emphasize Maria Sharapova’s loss in Paris. But Monday wasn’t about Sharapova losing; it was about the arrival of Dinara Safina.

The Golden Girl is an uncomfortable clay courter, lacking the graceful movement so necessary and trying to win with fight and grit.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS FeedIn the first set, when Sharapova saved 6 break points and then 2 set points in a tiebreak, it looked to be another match that Maria would win on effort over excellence.

But, then Safina lifted her play for the first time in a Slam moment. This player of immense skill and equal measure self-doubt began to turn things her way when she appeared down and out.

The single moment that may elevate Safina to a top 10 player and legit Slam contender came on Sharapova’s match point. Safina unloaded a fierce two-hand backhand up the line to stay alive. And eventually Safina leveled the match with a tiebreak win.

Third set belonged to Safina in its entirety. No longer could Sharapova bull her way into a win, for on the other side stood a player who had erased her doubts. Safina closed out the match 6-2 to reach her third Slam quarter.

But this time no one (and Mats Wilander publicly proclaimed this) would be shocked if Safina could join her brother as a champ. The field is that open, although Sveta Kuznetsova has a Slam on her resume and Ana Ivanovic is playing like one as well.

David Ferrer is the intriguing man of the day. He rallied from 2-1 down to KO Radek Stepanek in 5 sets. One of the most unassuming top 5 players to ever play, Ferrer has placed himself into the realm of players who could challenge the big boys on clay. A Spaniard who openly admits he patterned himself after Lleyton Hewitt (who he beat in the third round), Ferrer is fit (consecutive 5-set wins), gives away nothing and changes direction on the ball better than anyone on tour.

Sounds a lot like the Jose Higueras formula for victory on clay? If Ferrer can outlast the wildly talented and erratic Gael Monfils in the quarters, a Fed-Ferrer semi could be an interesting warmup for Nadal-Djokovic.

Rain will be the story of week 1 at Roland Garros. Unlike Tuesday, there should be windows sufficient to squeeze in play all days. But, patience will be the ultimate virtue and players will be tested with play on consecutive days. When play resumes Wednesday, expect heavy Hamburg-like conditions, unlike the hot dry day that helped Rafael Nadal in his final with Roger Federer here a year ago.

Some thoughts:
* The immediate winners in the aftermath of Justine Henin’s retirement were Maria Sharapova who inherited the #1 rank and Svetlana Kuznetsova who gained a favorable draw at RG. Henin’s absence placed the Sisters in the same half, and Kuznetsova safely in the other half, facing only a wobbly Anna Chakvetadze as a serious obstacle.

Kuznetsova conquered the conditions to win Tuesday while Sharapova will finally play her first match Wednesday morning.

* Roger Federer earned an early schedule win. Federer, a creature of extreme habit, successfully earned a Monday start while Nadal was placed on Tuesday’s card. Because of TV and ticket-holder greed, Nadal always plays late in the Paris day, thus leaving him vulnerable to rain. He never took the court until 7:30 Tuesday night, played 2 games and will return Wednesday to finish (forecast, by the way, is very good later in the day). But, now Nadal faces the certainty of at least one back-to-back sequence of play. Remember that at last year’s Wimbledon, Federer was calmly through in his half while Nadal played 6 times in the last 7 days. Only he can say whether that grind took a toll in the fifth set of their memorable final.

* Casual American fans dismiss this event for its blizzard of anonymous clay-courters. But it’s so refreshing to see the love for the sport and the resulting focus in a place like Paris. They want a local champion so badly, having waited 25 years since Noah (the weak attempt to adopt Mary Pierce in 2000 doesn’t count), that it struck me to see the cover of a major sports magazine, L’Equipe, feature Alize Cornet, France’s rising female hope. Cornet is only 18, and one need look at Gasquet to see the danger of premature hype. But Cornet gives the appearance of someone who relishes the bright lights. Given the melodrama here over Mauresmo and Gasquet’s problems with pressure and the unending injuries to Tsonga, look for Cornet to become the “hometown” hope.

An action-packed week for tennis: Roger Federer finally picked a coach and the selection of Jose Higueras signaled Federer’s intent on returning to form on clay (and the results were immediate, as Fed’s first title of 2008 in Estoril came in his first week of working with Higueras), the Davis Cup fallout continued with the French press hammering Richard Gasquet for ducking Andy Roddick last weekend, James Blake went to Houston and reached the final on clay albeit against a lesser field (but I see the Monte Carlo draw and Sam Querrey is the lone American) and, thanks to SI’s peerless Jon Wertheim, I learn that Alexandra Stevenson, 27 and ranked 258, qualified at Charleston and won a match before falling to Jelena Jankovic.

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But the real story of the week was in Charleston. And her name is Serena Williams.

She won the event, her second consecutive. She beat Maria Sharapova decisively which, after smacking Justine Henin in Miami, gives her wins over the top 2 women (computer be damned.)

Serena is fitter than any time since her reign atop the game ended in 2004. She is displaying the toughness that characterized her great years. Dropping a set to Vera Zvonareva in the Charleston final didn’t deter her, just as in the Miami final against Svetlana Kuznetsova or the Charleston match with Sharapova.

That match was a significant statement. Serena’s world changed when Sharapova hit her off Wimbledon Centre Court in the 2004 final. Now Serena has won the last 4 matches against Sharapova and hasn’t lost to her since 2004. Serena’s serve was emphatic as she won 16 of 18 points on her serve in the decisive third set in Charleston.

Serena is now back to 6 in the world. She heads to Europe as a threat to win again and women’s tennis needs this. The Slams will be much more fun with Serena in the mix.

Things have calmed in Melbourne but potentially stirring tennis awaits in Week 2. Just look at the quarters: Federer-Blake for the men (the final 8 still to be completed) and the women with a trifecta of Venus-Ivanovic, Serena-Jankovic and Sharapova-Henin.

This women’s Slam has been like most others, devoid of entertainment and challenging matches until Week 2, with the notable exception of the fluke Davenport-Sharapova Round 2 encounter.

The lack of women’s depth hurts Week 1, leading to a tedious procession of unexciting matchups, but helps Week 2, when the leading lights are more than likely to collide.

Notable in the final 8 women is Venus Williams, her first such appearance in Australia since 2003. Her last 3 Slams are now a Wimbledon title, a US Open semi and the quarters in Australia, again her best such stretch in 5 years.

How scary is it to realize that Venus, at 27, is the oldest remaining woman in the draw?

And here she has history on her side- a 4-0 career mark against Ana Ivanovic including a one-sided win at last year’s Wimbledon.

Jelena Jankovic has yet to achieve what Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova, and even Marion Bartoli have by reaching a Slam final. Much of that is attributable to her awful record against Justine Henin (0-9). Now, reaching her first Aussie quarter she runs into a fitter Serena Williams who took Jankovic down easily in last year’s round of 16.

Then there is another chapter in the epic Sharapova-Justine rivalry. Henin has the career edge at 6-2, but Maria has her second Slam title (06 US Open) at Justine’s expense. Henin has tried to counter with wins in the last 2 Tour Championships, November’s Shanghai match a classic with Henin rebounding from a first-set loss to win in 3. It was the match that capped a phenomenal year for Henin, 63-4 in singles, yet marked a rebound for Sharapova, whose shoulder woes ruined the second half of 2007.

Now Sharpova’s serve is a talking point from opponents in Australia. They have been surprised by its improvement. Henin has not showed any weakness either so this QF could be a classic.

By the way, don’t forget that this Aussie could see, for the first time since Wimbledon 2003, a Venus-Serena final.

What a day/night/morning at the Aussie Open: Andy Roddick falls in a well-played five set match and Andy himself says he’s “tired of thinking of new ways to say the same thing,” James Blake looks to be done at the hands of a fading Seb Grosjean only to rally from 0-2 and 1-4 in the third set breaker to win in 5 and suddenly James’ five-set failures are a fading memory, Lleyton Hewitt takes down Marcos Baghdatis in a match that STARTED near midnight and ended at 4:30 AM in Melbourne, last year’s finalist Fernando Gonzalez is sent home by a young Croat named Marin Cilic, Venus continued to cruise while a shocking slide continues for Amelie Mauresmo who showed a shocking “lack of nerves” in falling to Aussie Casey Dellacqua, and “peripheral” women Svetlana Kuznetsova and Anna Chakvetadze fell (isn’t it sad to label Kuznetsova when she is 2 in the world but does anyone think she can win a major if Justine Henin, Maria Sharapova and the Sisters are on their games?)

Yet it all pales next to Roger Federer and Janko Tipsarevic. In the fifth set, for the first time in 5 years on a court other than Roland Garros, I thought Federer was going down. Tipsarevic played with such boldness, never buckling in the presence of tennis greatness, striking the ball beautifully and answering every moment where Federer tried to exert himself. A sense washed over me that this would be the moment that the great one would be proved human.

Wrong again and I couldn’t help but be amazed by Federer’s fitness in the late stages of the fifth set. His workouts in the searing heat of Dubai don’t receive much publicity but last summer, American Jesse Levine talked about his experience as a “practice partner” to prepare Federer for the US Open. There were always 3 or 4 young players ready to practice with Federer. They rotated, staying fresher under the blistering sun. Federer, though, always stayed on court.

In Melbourne, Federer reaped the benefits of that work. We rarely see it because he is seldom pushed to five sets. But in the fifth set against Tipsarevic, as in last year’s Wimbledon final, Federer’s tennis is challenged but his body doesn’t fail.

The level of play produced by Tipsarevic was astounding. He simply didn’t miss of the ground and hit with enough force and depth to prevent Federer from exercising his strength- controlling the groundstrokes.

As Roddick had in defeat, Federer produced a record-setting service night. But that Roger needed 39 aces is further proof of the play of Tipsarevic.

Last thought: in tennis, we know more than most about Serbia. What too few know, and wasn’t emphasized last night, is that Tipsarevic stayed home while Jelena Jankovic, Novak Djokovic and Ana Ivanovic all left to pursue their tennis dreams. He had no benefactor and had to develop his game amidst the devastation of war. But Tipsarevic and his fellow Serbs have one thing in common: they have shown us all heart, fight and above all, fearlessness. After a childhood of bombings, warplanes and ethnic cleansing, what about a tennis match can cause one to back down? Tipsarevic showed the answer was not even the great Federer.

A draw analysis for Australia:

MEN
My first search: Where is Andy Roddick? And, much to Andy’s joy I am sure, he is opposite Roger Federer. Yes, he may draw Rafael Nadal in the quarters, but Roddick would take that every time to avoid Federer.

Second search: Where are the young Americans? John Isner drew a crazy first-round match with Fabrice Santoro, which if he survives, would get him another match with Federer. Donald Young is in Roddick’s section with an opener against German Michael Berrer before a potential showdown with Roddick. Sam Querrey draws Olivier Rochus first and Dmitry Tursunov in the second round. Obviously, Querrey has the best chance of the three to reach the first weekend.

Third search: Where is James Blake? In a dicey section, especially given James’ slide in the second half of 2007. If James can survive Nicolas Massu, Seb Grosjean and Ivan Ljubicic, he could collide with Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round before Federer in the quarters.

Heavyweights: Novak Djokovic draws the semi with Federer. In his path are David Nalbandian (a real threat until he tweaked his back this week), Lleyton Hewitt (poised for a rebound year under Darren Cahill’s tutelage) and David Ferrer. We find out quickly if Djokovic has recovered from his late-season fade.

Best draws: those in the bottom half, namely Roddick, Nadal, Richard Gasquet and Andy Murray. Nadal has a smooth path to another match with his mentor, Carlos Moya, in the fourth round. Even on a slower hard surface, Roddick should cruise into the quarters. And I think Murray, playing wonderfully since his split with Brad Gilbert, is my dark horse pick to reach his first Slam final.

WOMEN
My first search: Where is Serena? Thankfully, she avoided another quarter with Justine Henin. Maria Sharapova drew that short straw. Serena lingers in a section loaded with qualifiers, facing a potential run against Nicole Vaidisova (round of 16), Jelena Jankovic (QF) and Henin (SF).

Second search: Where is Lindsay Davenport? How about this welcome back gift for the former champ? She’s headed for a second round match with Sharapova. That winner should ease through to the quarters.

Third search: Where is Venus? Bottom half with a potential run of Marion Bartoli (round of 16), Ana Ivanovic (QF) and Svetlana Kuznetsova/Anna Chakvetadze (SF).

There aren’t many young Americans: Vania King draws Daniela Hantuchova in the first round, Ashley Harkleroad draws Virginie Razzano, and USTA wild card Madison Brengle draws Tatiana Perebiynis with Vera Zvonareva in the second round.

And Henin? Absolutely no resistance, assuming her health, until Maria Sharapova in the quarters. And every woman in the bottom half breathes easy as they watch Henin, Serena, Jankovic, Sharapova and Davenport smack each other around with only one to survive to the final.

Just as at the U.S. Open, the women need a more balanced draw.

Just days from the Aussie Open and:

Roger Federer will go into the Aussie stone cold. A stomach virus kept him from any warm up matches.

Contrast that with Justine Henin, who in just one tuneup, plays Ana Ivanovic and, if victorious, either Nicole Vaidisova or Svetlana Kuznetsova. A good prep for JH.

Was caught by surprise that Vaidisova has no seed next to her name this week. Indeed, her inactivity in the second half of last year caused her year-end rank to fall to 12. If Vaidisova is healthy, she is in the top 5 by mid-summer goes this prediction.

And Lindsay Davenport is already back to 52. I believe she is a DA to the Aussie thus she is well on her fast-track path back to the top 20.

And there is one big theme to watch as 2008 starts: Can the WTA Tour produce depth? Are there young women who will push the establishment as Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, Marcos Baghdatis and Tomas Berdych have done to the top men?

The aforementioned Vaidisova and Ivanovic, along with Jelena Jankovic, have produced some new blood, but the women need more. As great a story as Davenport’s return could be, the women’s game would be better served if her path to the top was more challenging.

Yes, this is cyclical. Just five years ago, the women flourished with Henin, Kim Clijsters, Davenport, Amelie Mauresmo, Jennifer Capriati, Mary Pierce and the Sisters bashing each other around in every major. The women’s reign, though, has waned for multiple reasons.

I will watch intently to see if someone puts up enough resistance so that Henin can’t repeat a 63-4 match record.

Speaking of newfound depth, great news in that Donald Young and John Isner earned direct acceptance to the Aussie Open. Both were wise, playing challengers last fall to earn the necessary points to crack the top 110, Young at 98 and Isner at 108 this week.

Now, they have every player’s dream — the chance to succeed on their ability. No qualies or challengers if they just win.

By contrast, Robby Ginepri is playing the Aussie qualies. Having slid to 132 in the rank, Ginepri saw his pals on the Davis Cup team plead for Robby to get the USTA-negotiated wild card for Melbourne.

Instead, Jesse Levine won a playoff for the spot and Ginepri has entered the land just vacated by Young and Isner.