Ted Robinson’s Matchpoints

Messages are flooding the e-mail; text messages are jamming the cell phone.

From the States comes word that this Wimbledon final mattered, that Fed and Rafa have registered with the American sporting public.

Except the order must be changed – it is now Rafa and Roger.

John McEnroe said it in the moments after the match – Nadal is No. 1. I don’t challenge John’s opinion. Rather I only question how anyone can be No. 1 with minimal success on hard courts.

But that does not detract from a classic Wimbledon final. One that legions, including John, are calling the best ever played.

Now John can’t be objective, and other longtime observers claim it is in contention with 1980 Borg-McEnroe for the “best ever” claim. This match, though, will grow in statue with time. Our appreciation for two champions willing to dig so deep physically, willing to fight so hard for something, wanting something so badly that they defy any physical limitations, is immense.

Their effort through a wet afternoon and evening at Wimbledon was cause for adoration. They are simply the best rivalry in sport since Ali-Frazier, Leonard-Hearns, and Nicklaus-Watson. The champions fully respect each other and the vibe emanates to all.

What decided this Wimbledon?

BREAK POINTS: They have played 10 sets in the last two Wimbledon’s and Nadal has only had his serve broken four times. This is the man with few aces but increased power and terrific play behind his serve. In Sunday’s final, Nadal played five-plus sets and was broken just once. This final resembled the 2007 French in that Roger had chances but Rafa was better on those big points.

NO FIFTH SET TIEBREAK: Which was likely Rafa’s biggest advantage. Federer has won five sets from Rafa in the last two Wimbledons and four have been in tiebreaks. Roger can’t break Rafa and the fifth set requires a break. Without one, Roger was at the whim of Rafa’s return game.

MENTAL STRENGTH: Perhaps the French Open hangover reared its head in the fifth set. Perhaps in the critical moment when one break would decide the match, it was Rafa’s belief that he could handle Fed’s serve that was decisive. Perhaps Rafa had the belief this year that he lacked last year because of the French final.

DUELING DELAYS: No doubt the first rain delay, in the third set, benefited Federer. But before a 2004 final could be written again (Fed was 1-1, 2-4 in the third when rain struck. Upon a resumption of play, he dominated Andy Roddick), a fifth set delay struck. At the time, Nadal’s faith was wandering. No rain and I believe Federer wins 6 in a row. But the last delay steadied Rafa and he survived into the “overtime.”

What does this mean?
 
Federer told Johnny Mac in our NBC interview that “it hurts.” I had never heard Roger say those words. John told me that Roger was intensely emotional. The effort expended in such a match could take time off the career of a champion who will soon turn 27.
 
Nadal has a terrific chance to finally ascent to the #1 rank by year’s end. Huge question: can he hold up on hard courts? Can he play enough tennis, and succeed in the US Open, to sustain the momentum generated by this historic double?

We are so lucky to watch this duo. Tennis is blessed to have two so fine. (Novak Djokovic is not yet worthy of inclusion with this pair.) All we can hope is that they persevere to do this again and again and again.

A quiet Sunday at Wimbledon — the Club is closed to the public which makes it a favored day for those with favored status. A credentialed hack can walk the grounds, enter the show courts and canvas the practice courts with little interference. Only the spare cleaning crew is present.
 
So that affords the chance for a rare moment with the top players. On Sunday, Roger Federer visited our NBC studios just before his practice. No shock that Federer, as classy a champion as any sport has seen, annually affords us this visit, something only Andy Roddick has regularly provided.

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Is Roger rattled by the French final? No outward signs were apparent.
 
Does he concern himself with the “media writing him off?” (I find the question unfair, as the “media” in tennis in often comprised of former players whose job is to analyze. I see no dismissal of Federer, rather a lovefest for Nadal, understandable given the French results and Rafa’s  near-miss here last year.) Roger admits the talk is an irritant; he claims he forgot the French the moment he left Paris and that he is reigning champ, 5 times at Wimbledon and 4 at the Open, and should be afforded the commensurate respect. Point well taken.
 
I asked Roger about his streaks: 16 straight Slam semis (active) and 10 straight Slam finals (ended at Australia). Are these a source of pride? He said yes, especially when seeing Novak Djokovic an early KO vicitim here and Andy at the French last year. His consistency is something he cherishes, usually discussed in terms of his #1 ranking but very real in his Slam performances.
 
Hard to understand Monday’s schedule. The Club likes to give each top player a Centre Court match before the semis in order to share the experience. But how could Venus, defending and four-time champ, and Serena,  a two-time champ, be scheduled consecutively on Court 2, the third show court and one without commentary booths? It, sadly, has every look of a slap at champions.

We talk about the pressure and wonder what impact it has on elite tennis players. We question those who seem to buckle under pressure and glorify those who rise above.  It’s part of the game as they so eloquently said in the great HBO series, “The Wire.”
 

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Then comes a moment when you see the question answered. You see tears flickering from the eyes of Ana Ivanovic as the new World No. 1 was on the verge of an upset loss Friday. Word filters through the tennis world that Ivanovic came to Wimbledon in a different mood. The sunny disposition and constant smile was gone.

I saw her on Sunday morning in Paris, the day after her champnioship, walking the streets with her support group and she was beaming. No one has seen a beam in London.

Is it the pressure of living up to her newly earned status? Is it the pressure of stardom in her home country? Did Ana suffer from some burnout, perhaps mental more than physical, as did fellow Serb Novak Djokovic? Those tears that Ana flicked away during the final changeover of her loss spoke loudly.
 
Some of the best grass-court tennis of the first week was played late Friday night by Mario Ancic in his four-set win over David Ferrer. Plagued most of 2007 by a viral illness, Ancic appears to be fully healthy and playing with the confidence that has made him a past threat here (semis against Andy Roddick in 2005.) Watching Ancic last night it was easy to believe that he could be the biggest roadblock to a third straight Federer-Nadal final. (It was six years ago- but remember that Ancic was the last man to beat Federer at Wimbledon.)
 
Ivanovic’s loss further cleared the path for a Sisters final. Serena was powerful in her Friday win over Amelie Mauresmo. The 2006 champ played a classic first set, moving well and displaying her fine grass-court skills. Serena needed to serve well , nearly 80%, to win in a tiebreak. Mauresmo collapsed after that and Serena pounced. Her round of 16 is American Bethanie Mattek, a fine show and the furthest advance of her career.
 
It turns out that James Blake doesn’t feel comfortable on grass. James feels less than fully confident in his movement and that is enough, he said, to take a slight edge off his aggressive play. Words like that, even if true, only support the feeling around the world that James is a one-surface player (fast hardcourt.) I cannot think of another top American in recent years who has stated uncertainty about playing on grass.

As Novak Djokovic fell to Marat Safin, my thoughts veered to one of tennis’ more astounding streaks: Roger Federer’s current run of 16 consecutive Slam semis.

It’s not as impressive as 10 straight Slam finals or 12 Slam titles (both at the top of Fed’s Greatest Hits) but it speaks to the dominance that Djokovic and Nadal have threatened but can’t match.

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Novak had the early makings of a run (five straight semis) but he fell victim to what Federer has avoided since 2002 Wimbledon (before he was a champion) in the early-round KO.

If you didn’t see the match, Safin had the day which all opponents fear when he plays like a contender and not a good-time Charlie. Yes, it was windy and likely contributed to Djokovic’s 10 doubles. But, Novak didn’t show the champion’s fight, especially in a flat third set, when things were going against him.

Contrast that to Rafael Nadal’s breakthrough Wimbledon win – his 2006 second-round over Robert Kendrick – when Rafa rallied from two sets down against a young American who was in a serving zone.

Or Federer’s classic 5-set win over Janko Tipsarevic in this year’s Aussie when, it turned out, Roger was afflicted with mono.

Djokovic actually gave a small glimpse at the truth in his post-match intro when he said there was no physical fatigue, but admitted to a shred of mental fatigue.

There’s been the adjustment to his first Slam, the pursuit of Fed and Nadal that has succeeded in creating a separate race for the Big 3, and the challenge that those 3 have accepted in taking places on the ATP Board.

The last point is the huge story within men’s tennis – the actions of ATP Chair Etienne de Villiers that have angered the game’s best players to the point that they felt compelled to “overthrow” the current leadership.

This is not an exaggeration; the Big 3 have learned of the methods employed by the ATP in creating a new 2009 schedule, forcing more participation by the players in a 19-tournament series (eliminating the freedom to schedule that the 3 feel they have earned and is essential to their continued success) and led to the potentially explosive Hamburg lawsuit (ATP legal fees are said to have exceeded $10M.)

More on this to come in the fortnight, but suffice to say that when Djokovic copped to some mental fatigue, I understood.

The grass is pristine on the first day of Wimbledon. Pure green for one day a year, before the relentless baseline game that marks this era of tennis creates brown dust at both ends of Centre Court.

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I thought of that as I watched Roger Federer easily move through his first-round match Monday. Seven years ago Federer’s moment of arrival was a Centre Court upset of Pete Sampras, a match that featured a heavy dose of serve and volley play from Roger.

As is well known, Federer claims he has no need to use that style now, so easily has he won five straight Wimbledons. Will Rafa Nadal or perhaps Novak Djokovic force him to change?

Federer gave several interviews Monday and stood firm against any line of questioning that suggested a hangover from the French final. The moment Fed walked off the court after his beating by Rafa, Roger said he bade the clay farewell for 11 months. And in that farewell went any impact of that match.

I tend to believe Federer. If there is a carryover, Federer will feel its full impact next spring. If the two meet again on clay, Roger will know the feeling of being a significant underdog with the need to prove himself in a way unknown for a 12-time Slam champion.

But Wimbledon is Roger’s until beaten. Rafa came close last July, but all that earned him was a second runner-up plate.

Disappointing day for Sam Querrey. The big serve would seem to bode well for his chances at Wimbledon but the American fell in four sets to Juan Carlos Ferrero. Querrey says he is uncomfortable on grass and feels veterans have a huge advantage playing on the surface used only one month a year.

Ivo Karlovic lost in the first round for the fourth consecutive year, stunning for the 6-foot-10 (208 centimeters) Croat with the huge serve.

So, I wonder – if Querrey and Karlovic are early KOs, has the impact of grass lessened? Does the grass court game play differently than a generation ago?

Rafa Nadal stood on the grass of the Queen’s Club in London, 7 days after winning his fourth consecutive French Open, and lifted a championship trophy. Seven days after reestablishing his dominance on clay, Rafa beat Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic on grass.

He may not win Wimbledon this year, but no one should doubt Nadal’s abilities on grass.

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In the Roddick match, Nadal was the better man on grass. That’s a stunning statement, I admit, and Roddick owns the dominant serve that always gives him a “puncher’s chance” (John McEnroe’s fitting words) at Wimbledon, but it was Nadal who moved more smoothly, volleyed with great touch and served well enough.

Greg Rusedski commented for BBC on the match and noted that while Roddick moves well laterally, Nadal is better moving forward, the necessary quality to succeed on grass.

I watched NBC’s replay of much of last year’s Wimbledon final during the French Open. What I had forgotten: Nadal broke Roger Federer’s serve more than Roger broke Rafa’s serve. During the match, John and I kept mentioning how stunned we were by that fact. And if Rafa had converted any of the now-infamous 4 break points in the fifth set, he may well have lifted the trophy.

The draw is due Friday and will always contain some intrigue, notably on which side Djokovic lands. But after watching London, and I’m sure Federer noted the results as he won the Halle warm-up, Nadal is no longer a surprise to win Wimbledon.

Speechless – that’s the state Rafa Nadal left us in Sunday. No one, anywhere at anytime, could have imagined Roger Federer rendered so impotent. It was impossible to conceive of the great Federer so helpless on any surface, even the red clay Nadal so loves.

What Rafa sent Sunday was a strong bulletin, if not a warning: don’t anoint Fed yet. Don’t believe anyone will beat me (Nadal) on this red clay. Don’t think there is kryptonite anywhere.

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Indeed, Nadal played the role of Clark Kent Sunday, changing into his Superman pirate shorts and sleeveless short before taking the court where he has never lost.

Federer talked the role, speaking confidently of his improvement on clay and the design given him by Jose Higueras. If true, there needs to be a serious recalibration by Federer for the stark truth is that the gap between himself and Nadal on clay has widened in the last year.

Nadal is sick, a heaving mass of muscle who moves like a dancer on the tricky surface and strikes winning shots from the most defensive of positions. At the very moment one thinks he has Nadal beaten, he strikes a winning blow.

Nadal is James Bond… or Jack Bauer.

So the more relevant question, for there is neither logic nor hope in wondering about Federer’s chances on clay, is whether the pendulum swings on grass. As unnatural as the surface is for Rafa, he solves it more definitively than Roger does clay. Rafa has come closer to winning Wimbledon than Roger at Roland Garros. And there is every reason to wonder if this is the year that Fed’s reign at SW19 could be toppled.

Novak Djokovic is a contender, although still a step behind the big 2 on clay and grass. Rafa has yet to prove he can play on the hardcourts, particularly after Wimbledon, but there is no one yet able to disrupt the Dynamic Duo in this spring doubleheader. Yes, even Andy Roddick has been able to insert himself into the equation, although it would be nice to see America’s No. 1 do so when few expect.

The great Bjorn Borg watched in awe as Nadal thoroughly dismantled one of the game’s greatest. Nadal is clearly Borg’s equal on clay and Fed has matched the Swede’s five straight Wimbledons. Is it clear that we are enjoying the greatest rivalry in the history of this great game?

Once again, tennis’ premier duo has made history. Sunday, when Rafa and Roger play for the French championship, it will be the first time that the same two men have played three straight years for a Slam title.

Honestly, it’s hard to see a different outcome. For much of Friday afternoon, Rafa Nadal neutered Novak Djokovic. The young Serb, whose abundant confidence has pricked some nerves (see: Federer, Roger), was dazed and confused. He wandered around Court Centrale with slumped shoulders and no apparent remedy.

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That’s the measure of Nadal; he gets in the head of foes like no other player on clay. He administers a physical beating that takes a huge mental toll.

To do that to Djokovic, who just a month ago took a set from Rafa in Hamburg and was playing for the No. 2 world rank, was staggering. Preparing for his semi, Roger could not help but have noticed.

After all, Fed was seen practicing Thursday with a LEFTY! That’s right, the day before his semi with Gael Monfils, Fed imported a young French lefty, undoubtedly to prepare for Rafa.

So, Rafa is in Roger’s head. How could it be otherwise when the clay docket reads 8-1 Nadal? Can Roger change the trend? Does Jose Higueras have a formula for success that a hundred players/coaches have failed to find?

Federer did not inspire such confidence against Monfils. The young Frenchman took a first set spanking but did not fold, spindle or mutilate. And Roger seemed surprisingly unable to deliver the knockout blow.

In the fourth set, as Monfils gamely fought off a pair of match points serving at 4-5, Mats Wilander commented on EuroSport that he was not sure where Federer’s head was. I have never once wondered about Fed’s focus or shot selection in a match as important as a Slam semi. Yet, here was a champion making the point. Was Fed looking too closely at Nadal? If so, another measure is seen of Rafa’s impact.

My bottom line: there has not been 1 moment during these 2 weeks when Rafa has demonstrated one iota of vulnerability. Not once has he given anyone reason to believe he will do anything but win his fourth straight French. The great Bjorn Borg will be in attendance to see his feat matched.

Talked to Pete Holtermann of the ATP, along with Greg Sharko a wise tennis mind that is an underappreciated asset in selling the sport to the American media. I asked Pete for his names to watch this summer. His thoughts:

* Robby Ginepri’s boost in the rankings, to between 50-60, helps him with direct entries and to relax in those events. The last time that happened, in the summer/fall of 2005, Robby shot to 15 in the world.

* The Olympics will affect the USOS in many ways; one being depleted fields in the August events. That could help Donald Young and John Isner rack up points in events like Washington, Los Angeles and New Haven.

* Then there are those fighting their way out of the Challengers. Tall South African Kevin Anderson and teen Kei Nishikori, from Japan/Florida, are perfect examples. Nishikori is already being subject to the suffocating Japanese media (I saw this first-hand in baseball) and uses assumed names in hotels. He has signed a lucrative endorsement deal with Sony and is likely to receive a wild card to the Olympics.

* Watered down fields in the Euro clay court events of the summer could help Younes El Aynoaui in his comeback. At 36, he has already jumped to 151 and some good summer events could put him back in the top 100.

* Amer Delic is returning from a surgery to suppress excess perspiration and won last week’s Carson challenger.

* And the last name that many root for is Taylor Dent, trying one more return from complex back surgery. His first challenger was a first-round loss in Carson.

A little tennis and a little culture from Roland Garros:

Not a great day for tennis - Serbia was the winner as the three standouts advanced to the semis. Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic won easily while talented Ernests Gulbis tested Novak Djokovic. Clearly seen, though, was that Gulbis must overcome a lack of training in Latvia. A hurry-up dose of experience and wisdom will give him the chance to be a Top 10 player.

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Big loser was Nicolas Almagro. Strong clay court results in the anonymity of lower tier tournaments do not translate into success at a Slam. Hate to be this strong but Almagro’s effort was pitiful. Court Chatrier is the biggest clay court stage in the world and he simply did not compete at anything approaching an acceptable level. Too often did Almagro stand still and watch Rafa Nadal winners fly by.

Can Nadal be better on clay? In the last four rounds, he has lost 17 games in 12 sets.

Junior focus: Ryan Harrison, 16, lost in 3 sets but in a Tennis Channel interview sounded amazingly poised. And he voiced the truth that must change for the US to ever truly hope of succeeding at Roland Garros — the clay here is not at all like the clay Harrison had played on at home. We must offer our best players the chance to train on red clay.

Pat McEnroe offered an interesting take on Melanie Oudin, the No. 1 seed in RG’s junior girls competition. Pat raved about her fight. It’s necessary for Oudin, from the Atlanta area, stands just 5-4. Unless she finds a height burst, it will be exceedingly difficult to project Oudin as a champion, but a good pro career is within reach due to her powerful ball striking and exceptional competitiveness.

Wednesday:
Women’s quarters find Svetlana Kuznetova facing first-timer Kaia Kanepi. Kuznetsova has the experience and the ability to withstand Kanepi’s power. Dinara Safina tries to reach her first Slam semi as she faces Elena Dementieva. But Elena has experience on her side in this matchup and has reduced her double fault problems. Is Dementieva ever favored in a big match?

Roger Federer is placed on the second court for his quarter with Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzo is playing more wisely on clay, an endorsement of coach Larry Stefanki, but history (10-1 Fed) and weather (heavy and damp) favors Federer.

Can Gael Monfils handle the moment? He’ll have a huge vibe in his favor but a tireless opponent across the net in David Ferrer. Ferrer should be too consistent for the erratic Monfils.

Culture notes:
My hotel TV carries a dozen Arabic channels, including Al Jazeera TV. The English-speaking channel has a US studio, incredibly clear pictures and the startling sights to an American viewer of women anchors in Muslim head wear.

BBC News, also available here, covers the US elections as if it were theirs. Interesting to frame the coverage here with Bill Clinton’s eternal popularity on this continent.

The lamentable state of our news coverage is evident at all times here. Multiple networks available here, including CNN International, cover Zimbabwe, the Pakistani suicide bombing and the aftermath of the China earthquake far more comprehensively than anything most of us see at home.

Headlines emphasize Maria Sharapova’s loss in Paris. But Monday wasn’t about Sharapova losing; it was about the arrival of Dinara Safina.

The Golden Girl is an uncomfortable clay courter, lacking the graceful movement so necessary and trying to win with fight and grit.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS FeedIn the first set, when Sharapova saved 6 break points and then 2 set points in a tiebreak, it looked to be another match that Maria would win on effort over excellence.

But, then Safina lifted her play for the first time in a Slam moment. This player of immense skill and equal measure self-doubt began to turn things her way when she appeared down and out.

The single moment that may elevate Safina to a top 10 player and legit Slam contender came on Sharapova’s match point. Safina unloaded a fierce two-hand backhand up the line to stay alive. And eventually Safina leveled the match with a tiebreak win.

Third set belonged to Safina in its entirety. No longer could Sharapova bull her way into a win, for on the other side stood a player who had erased her doubts. Safina closed out the match 6-2 to reach her third Slam quarter.

But this time no one (and Mats Wilander publicly proclaimed this) would be shocked if Safina could join her brother as a champ. The field is that open, although Sveta Kuznetsova has a Slam on her resume and Ana Ivanovic is playing like one as well.

David Ferrer is the intriguing man of the day. He rallied from 2-1 down to KO Radek Stepanek in 5 sets. One of the most unassuming top 5 players to ever play, Ferrer has placed himself into the realm of players who could challenge the big boys on clay. A Spaniard who openly admits he patterned himself after Lleyton Hewitt (who he beat in the third round), Ferrer is fit (consecutive 5-set wins), gives away nothing and changes direction on the ball better than anyone on tour.

Sounds a lot like the Jose Higueras formula for victory on clay? If Ferrer can outlast the wildly talented and erratic Gael Monfils in the quarters, a Fed-Ferrer semi could be an interesting warmup for Nadal-Djokovic.