Ted Robinson’s Matchpoints

The Americans have found the red clay, Andy Roddick and James Blake arriving in Rome this week. Hope is that improved results await at Roland Garros, as the bar can’t be lower after last year’s troubles.

Rafa Nadal uses this time of year as his personal marathon, playing every week on the surface he so loves. But even the superhuman occasionally stumble upon kryptonite. Nadal’s was his decision to play everywhere.

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So, in his third straight week on clay, Rafa was bounced in his first match of the Rome Masters by J. C. Ferrero. After failing to break at 4-4, 0-40 in the first set, Nadal ran out of gas and offered little reply to a strong serving performance from Ferrero.

No alarm should be taken from this result- the days off before Hamburg should benefit Nadal.

Instead, I offer another view of the “King of Clay.” This comes from an American now living in Barcelona, a knowledgeable tennis fan who attended three days of the Godo Seat last week.

If ever Nadal were to take a week off in the clay season, this would have been the time. But how can he miss a tournament in Spain? Our correspondent: “The crowd seemed most excited by Nadal’s presence (due to his international stardom both on court, and on TV and in magazines.)”

Interesting that the crowd displayed strong play for fellow Spaniard David Ferrer, the decided underdog in the final. It also took any edge off a match between two good friends.

Nadal won and the true view of this champion came in the aftermath when few eyes are on him. Luckily, our correspondent was there: “As Nadal was walking off the court, there were a group of kids trying to get autographs. Rafa stopped and signed every autograph he could, then handed his winning racquet to a young girl. The look on her face upon receiving the racquet was an unforgettable moment…she absolutely lit up! It was a great moment, only witnessed by the remaining few in the stadium. He is clearly someone who cares about his fans.”

Strong move by the USTA to enter an agreement with FFT to swap wild cards at the respective majors. There was a playoff in Florida last week won by Madison Brengle and Wayne Odesnik. Their experience in playing main draw at Roland Garros can only help reverse our recent clay results.

A draw analysis for Australia:

MEN
My first search: Where is Andy Roddick? And, much to Andy’s joy I am sure, he is opposite Roger Federer. Yes, he may draw Rafael Nadal in the quarters, but Roddick would take that every time to avoid Federer.

Second search: Where are the young Americans? John Isner drew a crazy first-round match with Fabrice Santoro, which if he survives, would get him another match with Federer. Donald Young is in Roddick’s section with an opener against German Michael Berrer before a potential showdown with Roddick. Sam Querrey draws Olivier Rochus first and Dmitry Tursunov in the second round. Obviously, Querrey has the best chance of the three to reach the first weekend.

Third search: Where is James Blake? In a dicey section, especially given James’ slide in the second half of 2007. If James can survive Nicolas Massu, Seb Grosjean and Ivan Ljubicic, he could collide with Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round before Federer in the quarters.

Heavyweights: Novak Djokovic draws the semi with Federer. In his path are David Nalbandian (a real threat until he tweaked his back this week), Lleyton Hewitt (poised for a rebound year under Darren Cahill’s tutelage) and David Ferrer. We find out quickly if Djokovic has recovered from his late-season fade.

Best draws: those in the bottom half, namely Roddick, Nadal, Richard Gasquet and Andy Murray. Nadal has a smooth path to another match with his mentor, Carlos Moya, in the fourth round. Even on a slower hard surface, Roddick should cruise into the quarters. And I think Murray, playing wonderfully since his split with Brad Gilbert, is my dark horse pick to reach his first Slam final.

WOMEN
My first search: Where is Serena? Thankfully, she avoided another quarter with Justine Henin. Maria Sharapova drew that short straw. Serena lingers in a section loaded with qualifiers, facing a potential run against Nicole Vaidisova (round of 16), Jelena Jankovic (QF) and Henin (SF).

Second search: Where is Lindsay Davenport? How about this welcome back gift for the former champ? She’s headed for a second round match with Sharapova. That winner should ease through to the quarters.

Third search: Where is Venus? Bottom half with a potential run of Marion Bartoli (round of 16), Ana Ivanovic (QF) and Svetlana Kuznetsova/Anna Chakvetadze (SF).

There aren’t many young Americans: Vania King draws Daniela Hantuchova in the first round, Ashley Harkleroad draws Virginie Razzano, and USTA wild card Madison Brengle draws Tatiana Perebiynis with Vera Zvonareva in the second round.

And Henin? Absolutely no resistance, assuming her health, until Maria Sharapova in the quarters. And every woman in the bottom half breathes easy as they watch Henin, Serena, Jankovic, Sharapova and Davenport smack each other around with only one to survive to the final.

Just as at the U.S. Open, the women need a more balanced draw.