Ted Robinson’s Matchpoints

Forty-eight hours later and I’m still in awe over Sunday. A 10-hour plane flight, with time to absorb nearly a dozen London newspapers along with nearly a hundred messages, many from those who would be classified as “casual” fans, has lent to the aura of this match as “the best ever.”

Now I hear today that SI will feature the match on its cover. When Pete Sampras won his record 13th Slam and 7th Wimbledon, we came home to see a muscled and tattooed Jason Giambi on the SI cover. Sampras was appalled. And now we know that tennis fell victim to the BALCO scam.

This was pure.

This was cojones grande, the only way to describe Rafa doing what he could not 12 months earlier, find a way to win the third set from Federer.

This was a champion falling in “brutal gladiatorial combat…but tumbling with valour” in the stirring words of London Daily Mail writer Paul Hayward. And how fine is that description.

In 24 hours back home, there is a talk-show buzz and coffee shop chat about this match that I have not witnessed in many years.

These two made tennis relevant. Now can it sustain what these two have created?

More from the Wimbledon cache:

* The disappointment over early exits by Andy Roddick and James Blake certainly went away. Stories always emerge; be it Andy Murray’s next step towards the top echelon, Marat Safin (up 35 places to 40), Rainer Schuettler (up 55 to 39) and Arnaud Clement (up 73 to 72) all made themselves relevant again, the two-week siege and double wins for the Sisters, Britain’s obsession over 14-year-old junior champ Laura Robson and her marvelously refreshing attitude over new fame, and the continuing presence of so many former champions at the AELTC.

* The roof can’t arrive fast enough. Sunday’s final ended about 10 minutes before a nightmare encounter would have occurred. The Club, understandably, wanted play to continue until 9:30-9:45 p.m.. They, like everyone, wanted a result. The money and disruption for Monday play, perhaps as little as two games, would have been wasteful. Yet, there was a point at which the players would have said, understandably, that a Championship, particularly from a match so superior, couldn’t be decided in darkness. Thankfully, we were spared the moment. A match for the ages had a proper ending in the dusk of Centre Court.

And traditionalists need not weep. Centre Court will still be open. Remember that grass needs light. The roof will only close once it rains, a 12-minute process. Thus, the courts will be still be covered for a short period. The benefit of the roof will be to guarantee play after a short stoppage and thus never again the drama of Sunday night.

* Major consensus in London was that the Williams Sisters success was due in part to the weakness of the WTA Tour. This is a debate for another time but the perception must be countered by the Tour.

* Start perhaps with Aggie Radwanska, the most impressive of the game’s young women. She has a Martina Hingis-like presence on the court that adds conviction to less-than-punishing shots. She simply doesn’t beat herself. Her lack of serve may hinder the hopes of a Wimbledon title, but the women’s game needs a player like Aggie to rise.

After all, this week’s rankings still feature Patty Schnyder, a career fourth-round player with one Slam semi to her credit, at 13 in the world. Lindsay Davenport won one round at Wimbledon and rose to 23. Tough to explain that to the sporting public.

* While we’re on that point, Serena passed Venus on the computer (reason 5,742 why I hate the concept). But my colleague, SI’s Jon Wertheim, poses a terrific question: has Venus’ career eclipsed Serena’s?

* Now we move to the hard courts and wonder whether Donald Young, John Isner (both of whom fell and are close to being out of the top 100) and Sam Querrey can make a move. Can Bethanie Mattek continue her momentum from the spring/summer and make a Robby Ginepri-like charge through the summer?

And can Rafa play well in the States, particularly the Open? Will his knees, the ones that Uncle Toni admits are so tender that the family wants Rafa to play LESS on the hard stuff, allow him to show New York his greatness?

And does Roger, whose performance at Wimbledon showed he is certainly not done, feel a little pressure to win Slams sooner rather than later?

The stat came in the third set of Rafa Nadal’s first-round win over Andreas Beck. After nine service games, Nadal had lost a total of 8 points.

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It reminded me of last year’s Wimbledon final – through four-and-a-half sets, Nadal’s serve had been broken once. By the best player on the planet. On grass. With one ace.

There is the essence of Nadal. He doesn’t blast serves. He doesn’t win a free set with aces as Roger Federer did in last year’s classic five-setter.

Nadal just holds serve.

How? I keep recalling Johnny Mac’s statement last July that Nadal was the modern-day Bjorn Borg, the player who won matches through physical play — the player that John remembered as being “impossible to get a ball past.”

And there is an apt description of Nadal, even on grass where he hugs the baseline.

* * *

Our wait for an American to make a 2008 push continues. Sam Querrey, John Isner and Donald Young (to fellow American Jesse Levine) all lost in the first round. Young has lost first round in both Paris and Wimbledon — same with Querrey, although he drew Federer in Paris.

Isner had a tough draw at Wimby with Ernests Gulbis, but as some point one of the young Americans needs to win some tough matches.

Like Wayne Odesnik taking out Guillermo Canas in Paris or Bobby Reynolds winning first round at Wimbledon.

* * *

Well done by Lindsey Davenport in overcoming a significant leg injury that required sophisticated taping. Davenport was pushed to the third set by an anonymous European but managed to call on her classic ball striking to survive. Her third round, against Elena Dementieva, could be tough.

* * *

Great Britain’s hope is that Andy Murray can reach his first slam quarter where he would likely meet Nadal. Murray comes across in interviews as calmer than the player derailed by “court rage” in the past. Can he handle, as Tim Henman did so well, the heat of a country’s intense focus?

Once again, tennis’ premier duo has made history. Sunday, when Rafa and Roger play for the French championship, it will be the first time that the same two men have played three straight years for a Slam title.

Honestly, it’s hard to see a different outcome. For much of Friday afternoon, Rafa Nadal neutered Novak Djokovic. The young Serb, whose abundant confidence has pricked some nerves (see: Federer, Roger), was dazed and confused. He wandered around Court Centrale with slumped shoulders and no apparent remedy.

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That’s the measure of Nadal; he gets in the head of foes like no other player on clay. He administers a physical beating that takes a huge mental toll.

To do that to Djokovic, who just a month ago took a set from Rafa in Hamburg and was playing for the No. 2 world rank, was staggering. Preparing for his semi, Roger could not help but have noticed.

After all, Fed was seen practicing Thursday with a LEFTY! That’s right, the day before his semi with Gael Monfils, Fed imported a young French lefty, undoubtedly to prepare for Rafa.

So, Rafa is in Roger’s head. How could it be otherwise when the clay docket reads 8-1 Nadal? Can Roger change the trend? Does Jose Higueras have a formula for success that a hundred players/coaches have failed to find?

Federer did not inspire such confidence against Monfils. The young Frenchman took a first set spanking but did not fold, spindle or mutilate. And Roger seemed surprisingly unable to deliver the knockout blow.

In the fourth set, as Monfils gamely fought off a pair of match points serving at 4-5, Mats Wilander commented on EuroSport that he was not sure where Federer’s head was. I have never once wondered about Fed’s focus or shot selection in a match as important as a Slam semi. Yet, here was a champion making the point. Was Fed looking too closely at Nadal? If so, another measure is seen of Rafa’s impact.

My bottom line: there has not been 1 moment during these 2 weeks when Rafa has demonstrated one iota of vulnerability. Not once has he given anyone reason to believe he will do anything but win his fourth straight French. The great Bjorn Borg will be in attendance to see his feat matched.

Talked to Pete Holtermann of the ATP, along with Greg Sharko a wise tennis mind that is an underappreciated asset in selling the sport to the American media. I asked Pete for his names to watch this summer. His thoughts:

* Robby Ginepri’s boost in the rankings, to between 50-60, helps him with direct entries and to relax in those events. The last time that happened, in the summer/fall of 2005, Robby shot to 15 in the world.

* The Olympics will affect the USOS in many ways; one being depleted fields in the August events. That could help Donald Young and John Isner rack up points in events like Washington, Los Angeles and New Haven.

* Then there are those fighting their way out of the Challengers. Tall South African Kevin Anderson and teen Kei Nishikori, from Japan/Florida, are perfect examples. Nishikori is already being subject to the suffocating Japanese media (I saw this first-hand in baseball) and uses assumed names in hotels. He has signed a lucrative endorsement deal with Sony and is likely to receive a wild card to the Olympics.

* Watered down fields in the Euro clay court events of the summer could help Younes El Aynoaui in his comeback. At 36, he has already jumped to 151 and some good summer events could put him back in the top 100.

* Amer Delic is returning from a surgery to suppress excess perspiration and won last week’s Carson challenger.

* And the last name that many root for is Taylor Dent, trying one more return from complex back surgery. His first challenger was a first-round loss in Carson.

Robby Ginepri has played the role of Lazarus before. In 2005, he arrived in Indianapolis with a rank around 100, in danger of missing the cut for the US Open, without an endorsement deal and with a new coach, Francisco Montana.

That hot week in Indiana, wearing clothes gifted him by a friend representing a fledgling company (UnderArmour), Ginepri won the tournament.

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And it started a run that saw Robby win 4 straight 5-set matches at the Open, reach the semis and finally ascend to 15 in the world.

He couldn’t sustain that pace, and the next 3 years have again been a struggle.

Falling to 171 in the world while young guns like Donald Young and Sam Querrey make their way could have pushed Ginepri to the end, but he has continued to fight.

His best move: connecting with Jose Higueras, whose credentials are unchallenged.

Now Ginepri is the last American in Paris, reaching the fourth round, not done by an American man since Agassi 5 years ago. And the shocking part has been Robby’s comments, that he never knew how to construct a point on clay, never understood how to play with his head until his alliance with Higueras and Diego Ayala.

Two questions: Why does it take players so long to understand the importance of strategy on clay? And does anyone doubt Roger Federer’s chances with Higueras in his corner?
 
Ginepri will play Fernando Gonzalez Monday, as the Chilean was one of Saturday’s 5-set heroes. Both Gonzo and Ivan Ljubicic rallied from 0-2 deficits to win, Nikolay Davydenko the shocking victim of Ljubicic’s comeback.

Inspired effort from Julien Benneteau who played 5 sets Friday and came back the next day to knock out a rested Robin Soderling. 

Could anyone have imagined the following representation in the men’s 16: France 5, Spain 4?

The women are loaded with Russians. In fact, 4 will play for one semi spot. Maria Sharapova is favored as she continues to fight as she displayed in an 81-minute first set against Karin Knapp.  But watch for Vera Zvonareva, talented but fragile, who appears healthy and has the game to move forward on clay.
 
Sunday belongs to the men on the big stage, with Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic playing back-to-back as they move towards a marquee semi.
 

Roger Federer’s loss to Andy Murray in Dubai reminded me of a talking point in my recent conversation with Pete Sampras.

Pete was accepting, philosophical and almost predicting that his record 14 Slams would fall to Roger. The only comment I made was that athletes generally find out that the last steps towards a record are the toughest.

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We have seen it in every sport, when all records are broken. Some is due to the advanced age of an athlete who has played long enough to break a record. Some is likely due to nerves and stress. And some is likely due to the fact that you just can’t be the best forever.

Is Roger Federer beginning down the last path?

(At this point in the exercise, the author acknowledges the potential for foolishness and embarrassment involved in any exercise predicting doom and/or gloom for Federer. The author also acknowledges vast prior experience in foolish statements.)

He is 26 1/2, old in the hyper-competitive men’s game. He has beaten all comers (save Rafael Nadal and in the last 6 months, Novak Djokovic) so thoroughly that a mental dominance has been established. But hunters look for any weakness, any opening they can seize to bag their prey.

Has Roger given them an opening? He will be in New York for a Monday exhibition with Sampras before the Masters in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne. That means he takes the court in the California desert with no momentum. In fact, there will be some nagging doubt to be answered.

Pete thought Roger would break his record late this year or early next year. If my sports history tells me anything, I suggest Pete holds his record longer than he believes.

To his credit, he rallied from one set down to defeat Alejandro Falla and advance to a second round against qualifier Kevin Anderson. Top seed Fernando Gonzalez looms in the third round.

Interesting to hear mixed reviews of Andy Roddick’s win in San Jose. Some feedback focused on strong play from Roddick, a sound strong backhand that he was willing to rip up the line, his potent serve (particularly in the final against Radek Stepanek) and a growing confidence as he rolled through the week (albeit against no top ranked players until the final.)

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Then there were the comments that ranged from concern to contempt for Roddick’s attitude. He derailed Japanese teen Kei Nishikori, conqueror of James Blake in the Delray final, and unloaded a verbal barrage in the process. Nishikori first claimed not to hear Roddick, then admitted an unwillingness to repeat the words publicly.

The esteemed Jon Wertheim, who shares with me a tendency to like Roddick, framed the San Jose incident in the light of recent transgressions, notably Andy’s explosion at umpire Emmanuel Joseph during his loss to Phillip Kohlschreiber in Australia, and wondered if there has been a sea change in Roddick’s demeanor. Fair question — is he being influenced by Jimmy Connors?

Here’s what I know: from an early age, Roddick understood his position as the heir to the Sampras-Agassi throne. As a sports fan, he was aware of tennis’ position in the American sports arena and went to pains to sell/promote the sport much more than himself. His triumphant media tour of New York after winning the 2003 US Open was masterful. It signaled that American tennis was set for the next 6-8 years.

Of course, we couldn’t have predicted Roger Federer. Andy could never have imagined not just Fed’s 12 Slams but also the 15-1 head-to-head dominance of Roger.

And for four years, imagine how many times Roddick has heard that line of questioning….Why is Roger so good? What can you do to stop him? Can you beat him? Is Roger the best ever? Think Roddick may tire of that?

Something else I know: Roddick has been great with young American players on tour. At Wimbledon, he has insisted on using the upper-tier of the men’s locker room, the area to which lesser players and juniors are relegated. There Andy hands with the group that has largely been his peers while the other top-ranked pros dress on the lower level. Roddick is also a thorough American sports fan, thus the concept of “talking” to an opponent may not strike him as foreign as it does many who love tennis.

Story I never forget: 2000 Davis Cup in Los Angeles. Johnny Mac, as captain, chooses 17-year-old Roddick as practice player. What Andy learned was that the role called for him to be “fresh meat,” in this case for Andre Agassi. The great Agassi punished Roddick on the court in their head-to-head practice match. And then Andre piled on a verbal assault. The cumulative effect was so fierce as to force Johnny Mac to halt the proceedings.

I have only talked briefly to Andy about that time, but I am fairly sure he has never forgotten. So when he “talks trash” to Nishikori, Andy may think it’s nothing compared to what he took from Andre. And to the treatment of umpires, well could Connors be advising Roddick that his flare-ups are nothing compared to the classics of Jimmy’s era?

The world of super models, high-stakes poker and private jets in which Roddick lives is another issue, one raised in a fair manner by Jon Wertheim. And I agree with Jon’s conclusion. If Roddick has veered in some ways, the Andy I know will return.

Lost in the news over Monica Seles’ retirement last week was the WTA announcement of an initiative to enhance player safety. Most importantly, criminal background checks will be conducted on player entourage team members and others seeking credentialed access.  It’s a terrific, if overdue, step after the litany of abusive parents (Jim Pierce, Damir Dokic and the horrid 2005 story of Evgenia Linetskaya) and coaches (Joe Giuliano.)

Rankings updates: Roddick, who took a wild card into Memphis (d. Gilles Muller (32) in first round), is still 6, a distance behind Nikolay Davydenko (5) and safely ahead of Richard Gasquet (7).

Biggest rebound is David Nalbandian, coming back from 25 last fall to his present 8.

Ivo Karlovic turns 29 this week and celebrates with a career-best rank of 21.

US rankings: Sam Querrey 63, Vince Spadea 70, John Isner 93, Mardy Fish 94, Bobby Reynolds 100, Donald Young 102 (d. Sam Warburg in 1R Memphis) and Robby Ginepri back to 108 after beating Blake to make the semis in San Jose.

Talked to Pete Sampras before his San Jose exhibition Monday night and came away convinced, though he admits temptation, that he will not come back to play, not even another Wimbledon.

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No Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Jordan resurrections of an aging superstar are likely with Pete.

And Pete’s answer to the question cemented that view. “I don’t need it,” he said. That’s a very important distinction from wanting to play again, a feeling to which Pete admits. The aforementioned stars, and countless other greats, competed beyond their time because of the need to be in the arena, not simply desire.

Sampras is happy with his family, two young sons and a wife who is dabbling in her acting career. His time on court affords him the adulation any champion loves, without any of the accompanying pressure. He is playing more on Jim Courier’s Champions Tour but I sense the exhibitions, particularly with Roger Federer, are Pete’s true pleasure.

He is expansive talking about the friendship he has struck with the man stalking Pete’s record. They are similar people, Pete using the phrase “humble champion” to describe Federer, the very term so often used about Pete in his career.

Tennis will win as Federer approaches and likely surpasses Pete’s 14 Slams. Unlike baseball’s melodrama of last summer, Sampras freely says he wants to be on hand if Federer wins his 15th (Australia travel may be too much.) But if the day comes, and I think the last few will be tougher than most imagine for Roger, the passing of the tennis torch will be done with style and class.

One contrast is obvious: whereas Andre Agassi, Pete’s eternal rival, morphs into a multi-layered businessman with interests both philanthropic (schools) and profit-driven (resort hotels), Pete is adjusting to a life formed by a single-minded focus on tennis. So the search for post-playing options has been more involved.

It’s the price one pays for the mantle of champion. Pete admits he is most proud of his consistency — 5 consecutive years finishing No. 1 — but the cost of that is paid when the racquets are put away. That’s why Pete is playing again, casual though it may be, and why he and Federer, headed to NYC March 10, are slowly becoming linked as the two greatest to play the game.

Asides from San Jose: Another foreign-born but American-trained player is this week’s rage on the men’s tour. Kei Nishikori, 18 year-old Japanese-American, developed his game at the Bolletieri Academy on Florida. Beating James Blake in Delray Beach to win his first ATP title earned him a San Jose wild card. He won his first round and draws Andy Roddick tonight. A win over Roddick would catapult the teen into the Top 100 and grab everyone’s attention.

Meanwhile, a lost opportunity for Donald Young. His first round opponent, Hyung-Taik Lee, withdrew from San Jose with back problems. The late sub, American Wayne Odesnik, took Young out. Donald has some pressure to back up his strong year-end run with some main-draw wins while his rank allows him direct entries.

Notes from Day 2:

A draw analysis for Australia:

MEN
My first search: Where is Andy Roddick? And, much to Andy’s joy I am sure, he is opposite Roger Federer. Yes, he may draw Rafael Nadal in the quarters, but Roddick would take that every time to avoid Federer.

Second search: Where are the young Americans? John Isner drew a crazy first-round match with Fabrice Santoro, which if he survives, would get him another match with Federer. Donald Young is in Roddick’s section with an opener against German Michael Berrer before a potential showdown with Roddick. Sam Querrey draws Olivier Rochus first and Dmitry Tursunov in the second round. Obviously, Querrey has the best chance of the three to reach the first weekend.

Third search: Where is James Blake? In a dicey section, especially given James’ slide in the second half of 2007. If James can survive Nicolas Massu, Seb Grosjean and Ivan Ljubicic, he could collide with Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round before Federer in the quarters.

Heavyweights: Novak Djokovic draws the semi with Federer. In his path are David Nalbandian (a real threat until he tweaked his back this week), Lleyton Hewitt (poised for a rebound year under Darren Cahill’s tutelage) and David Ferrer. We find out quickly if Djokovic has recovered from his late-season fade.

Best draws: those in the bottom half, namely Roddick, Nadal, Richard Gasquet and Andy Murray. Nadal has a smooth path to another match with his mentor, Carlos Moya, in the fourth round. Even on a slower hard surface, Roddick should cruise into the quarters. And I think Murray, playing wonderfully since his split with Brad Gilbert, is my dark horse pick to reach his first Slam final.

WOMEN
My first search: Where is Serena? Thankfully, she avoided another quarter with Justine Henin. Maria Sharapova drew that short straw. Serena lingers in a section loaded with qualifiers, facing a potential run against Nicole Vaidisova (round of 16), Jelena Jankovic (QF) and Henin (SF).

Second search: Where is Lindsay Davenport? How about this welcome back gift for the former champ? She’s headed for a second round match with Sharapova. That winner should ease through to the quarters.

Third search: Where is Venus? Bottom half with a potential run of Marion Bartoli (round of 16), Ana Ivanovic (QF) and Svetlana Kuznetsova/Anna Chakvetadze (SF).

There aren’t many young Americans: Vania King draws Daniela Hantuchova in the first round, Ashley Harkleroad draws Virginie Razzano, and USTA wild card Madison Brengle draws Tatiana Perebiynis with Vera Zvonareva in the second round.

And Henin? Absolutely no resistance, assuming her health, until Maria Sharapova in the quarters. And every woman in the bottom half breathes easy as they watch Henin, Serena, Jankovic, Sharapova and Davenport smack each other around with only one to survive to the final.

Just as at the U.S. Open, the women need a more balanced draw.

Just days from the Aussie Open and:

Roger Federer will go into the Aussie stone cold. A stomach virus kept him from any warm up matches.

Contrast that with Justine Henin, who in just one tuneup, plays Ana Ivanovic and, if victorious, either Nicole Vaidisova or Svetlana Kuznetsova. A good prep for JH.

Was caught by surprise that Vaidisova has no seed next to her name this week. Indeed, her inactivity in the second half of last year caused her year-end rank to fall to 12. If Vaidisova is healthy, she is in the top 5 by mid-summer goes this prediction.

And Lindsay Davenport is already back to 52. I believe she is a DA to the Aussie thus she is well on her fast-track path back to the top 20.

And there is one big theme to watch as 2008 starts: Can the WTA Tour produce depth? Are there young women who will push the establishment as Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, Marcos Baghdatis and Tomas Berdych have done to the top men?

The aforementioned Vaidisova and Ivanovic, along with Jelena Jankovic, have produced some new blood, but the women need more. As great a story as Davenport’s return could be, the women’s game would be better served if her path to the top was more challenging.

Yes, this is cyclical. Just five years ago, the women flourished with Henin, Kim Clijsters, Davenport, Amelie Mauresmo, Jennifer Capriati, Mary Pierce and the Sisters bashing each other around in every major. The women’s reign, though, has waned for multiple reasons.

I will watch intently to see if someone puts up enough resistance so that Henin can’t repeat a 63-4 match record.

Speaking of newfound depth, great news in that Donald Young and John Isner earned direct acceptance to the Aussie Open. Both were wise, playing challengers last fall to earn the necessary points to crack the top 110, Young at 98 and Isner at 108 this week.

Now, they have every player’s dream — the chance to succeed on their ability. No qualies or challengers if they just win.

By contrast, Robby Ginepri is playing the Aussie qualies. Having slid to 132 in the rank, Ginepri saw his pals on the Davis Cup team plead for Robby to get the USTA-negotiated wild card for Melbourne.

Instead, Jesse Levine won a playoff for the spot and Ginepri has entered the land just vacated by Young and Isner.