Ted Robinson’s Matchpoints

Messages are flooding the e-mail; text messages are jamming the cell phone.

From the States comes word that this Wimbledon final mattered, that Fed and Rafa have registered with the American sporting public.

Except the order must be changed – it is now Rafa and Roger.

John McEnroe said it in the moments after the match – Nadal is No. 1. I don’t challenge John’s opinion. Rather I only question how anyone can be No. 1 with minimal success on hard courts.

But that does not detract from a classic Wimbledon final. One that legions, including John, are calling the best ever played.

Now John can’t be objective, and other longtime observers claim it is in contention with 1980 Borg-McEnroe for the “best ever” claim. This match, though, will grow in statue with time. Our appreciation for two champions willing to dig so deep physically, willing to fight so hard for something, wanting something so badly that they defy any physical limitations, is immense.

Their effort through a wet afternoon and evening at Wimbledon was cause for adoration. They are simply the best rivalry in sport since Ali-Frazier, Leonard-Hearns, and Nicklaus-Watson. The champions fully respect each other and the vibe emanates to all.

What decided this Wimbledon?

BREAK POINTS: They have played 10 sets in the last two Wimbledon’s and Nadal has only had his serve broken four times. This is the man with few aces but increased power and terrific play behind his serve. In Sunday’s final, Nadal played five-plus sets and was broken just once. This final resembled the 2007 French in that Roger had chances but Rafa was better on those big points.

NO FIFTH SET TIEBREAK: Which was likely Rafa’s biggest advantage. Federer has won five sets from Rafa in the last two Wimbledons and four have been in tiebreaks. Roger can’t break Rafa and the fifth set requires a break. Without one, Roger was at the whim of Rafa’s return game.

MENTAL STRENGTH: Perhaps the French Open hangover reared its head in the fifth set. Perhaps in the critical moment when one break would decide the match, it was Rafa’s belief that he could handle Fed’s serve that was decisive. Perhaps Rafa had the belief this year that he lacked last year because of the French final.

DUELING DELAYS: No doubt the first rain delay, in the third set, benefited Federer. But before a 2004 final could be written again (Fed was 1-1, 2-4 in the third when rain struck. Upon a resumption of play, he dominated Andy Roddick), a fifth set delay struck. At the time, Nadal’s faith was wandering. No rain and I believe Federer wins 6 in a row. But the last delay steadied Rafa and he survived into the “overtime.”

What does this mean?
 
Federer told Johnny Mac in our NBC interview that “it hurts.” I had never heard Roger say those words. John told me that Roger was intensely emotional. The effort expended in such a match could take time off the career of a champion who will soon turn 27.
 
Nadal has a terrific chance to finally ascent to the #1 rank by year’s end. Huge question: can he hold up on hard courts? Can he play enough tennis, and succeed in the US Open, to sustain the momentum generated by this historic double?

We are so lucky to watch this duo. Tennis is blessed to have two so fine. (Novak Djokovic is not yet worthy of inclusion with this pair.) All we can hope is that they persevere to do this again and again and again.

The stat came in the third set of Rafa Nadal’s first-round win over Andreas Beck. After nine service games, Nadal had lost a total of 8 points.

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It reminded me of last year’s Wimbledon final – through four-and-a-half sets, Nadal’s serve had been broken once. By the best player on the planet. On grass. With one ace.

There is the essence of Nadal. He doesn’t blast serves. He doesn’t win a free set with aces as Roger Federer did in last year’s classic five-setter.

Nadal just holds serve.

How? I keep recalling Johnny Mac’s statement last July that Nadal was the modern-day Bjorn Borg, the player who won matches through physical play — the player that John remembered as being “impossible to get a ball past.”

And there is an apt description of Nadal, even on grass where he hugs the baseline.

* * *

Our wait for an American to make a 2008 push continues. Sam Querrey, John Isner and Donald Young (to fellow American Jesse Levine) all lost in the first round. Young has lost first round in both Paris and Wimbledon — same with Querrey, although he drew Federer in Paris.

Isner had a tough draw at Wimby with Ernests Gulbis, but as some point one of the young Americans needs to win some tough matches.

Like Wayne Odesnik taking out Guillermo Canas in Paris or Bobby Reynolds winning first round at Wimbledon.

* * *

Well done by Lindsey Davenport in overcoming a significant leg injury that required sophisticated taping. Davenport was pushed to the third set by an anonymous European but managed to call on her classic ball striking to survive. Her third round, against Elena Dementieva, could be tough.

* * *

Great Britain’s hope is that Andy Murray can reach his first slam quarter where he would likely meet Nadal. Murray comes across in interviews as calmer than the player derailed by “court rage” in the past. Can he handle, as Tim Henman did so well, the heat of a country’s intense focus?

Speechless – that’s the state Rafa Nadal left us in Sunday. No one, anywhere at anytime, could have imagined Roger Federer rendered so impotent. It was impossible to conceive of the great Federer so helpless on any surface, even the red clay Nadal so loves.

What Rafa sent Sunday was a strong bulletin, if not a warning: don’t anoint Fed yet. Don’t believe anyone will beat me (Nadal) on this red clay. Don’t think there is kryptonite anywhere.

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Indeed, Nadal played the role of Clark Kent Sunday, changing into his Superman pirate shorts and sleeveless short before taking the court where he has never lost.

Federer talked the role, speaking confidently of his improvement on clay and the design given him by Jose Higueras. If true, there needs to be a serious recalibration by Federer for the stark truth is that the gap between himself and Nadal on clay has widened in the last year.

Nadal is sick, a heaving mass of muscle who moves like a dancer on the tricky surface and strikes winning shots from the most defensive of positions. At the very moment one thinks he has Nadal beaten, he strikes a winning blow.

Nadal is James Bond… or Jack Bauer.

So the more relevant question, for there is neither logic nor hope in wondering about Federer’s chances on clay, is whether the pendulum swings on grass. As unnatural as the surface is for Rafa, he solves it more definitively than Roger does clay. Rafa has come closer to winning Wimbledon than Roger at Roland Garros. And there is every reason to wonder if this is the year that Fed’s reign at SW19 could be toppled.

Novak Djokovic is a contender, although still a step behind the big 2 on clay and grass. Rafa has yet to prove he can play on the hardcourts, particularly after Wimbledon, but there is no one yet able to disrupt the Dynamic Duo in this spring doubleheader. Yes, even Andy Roddick has been able to insert himself into the equation, although it would be nice to see America’s No. 1 do so when few expect.

The great Bjorn Borg watched in awe as Nadal thoroughly dismantled one of the game’s greatest. Nadal is clearly Borg’s equal on clay and Fed has matched the Swede’s five straight Wimbledons. Is it clear that we are enjoying the greatest rivalry in the history of this great game?

Once again, tennis’ premier duo has made history. Sunday, when Rafa and Roger play for the French championship, it will be the first time that the same two men have played three straight years for a Slam title.

Honestly, it’s hard to see a different outcome. For much of Friday afternoon, Rafa Nadal neutered Novak Djokovic. The young Serb, whose abundant confidence has pricked some nerves (see: Federer, Roger), was dazed and confused. He wandered around Court Centrale with slumped shoulders and no apparent remedy.

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That’s the measure of Nadal; he gets in the head of foes like no other player on clay. He administers a physical beating that takes a huge mental toll.

To do that to Djokovic, who just a month ago took a set from Rafa in Hamburg and was playing for the No. 2 world rank, was staggering. Preparing for his semi, Roger could not help but have noticed.

After all, Fed was seen practicing Thursday with a LEFTY! That’s right, the day before his semi with Gael Monfils, Fed imported a young French lefty, undoubtedly to prepare for Rafa.

So, Rafa is in Roger’s head. How could it be otherwise when the clay docket reads 8-1 Nadal? Can Roger change the trend? Does Jose Higueras have a formula for success that a hundred players/coaches have failed to find?

Federer did not inspire such confidence against Monfils. The young Frenchman took a first set spanking but did not fold, spindle or mutilate. And Roger seemed surprisingly unable to deliver the knockout blow.

In the fourth set, as Monfils gamely fought off a pair of match points serving at 4-5, Mats Wilander commented on EuroSport that he was not sure where Federer’s head was. I have never once wondered about Fed’s focus or shot selection in a match as important as a Slam semi. Yet, here was a champion making the point. Was Fed looking too closely at Nadal? If so, another measure is seen of Rafa’s impact.

My bottom line: there has not been 1 moment during these 2 weeks when Rafa has demonstrated one iota of vulnerability. Not once has he given anyone reason to believe he will do anything but win his fourth straight French. The great Bjorn Borg will be in attendance to see his feat matched.

Talked to Pete Holtermann of the ATP, along with Greg Sharko a wise tennis mind that is an underappreciated asset in selling the sport to the American media. I asked Pete for his names to watch this summer. His thoughts:

* Robby Ginepri’s boost in the rankings, to between 50-60, helps him with direct entries and to relax in those events. The last time that happened, in the summer/fall of 2005, Robby shot to 15 in the world.

* The Olympics will affect the USOS in many ways; one being depleted fields in the August events. That could help Donald Young and John Isner rack up points in events like Washington, Los Angeles and New Haven.

* Then there are those fighting their way out of the Challengers. Tall South African Kevin Anderson and teen Kei Nishikori, from Japan/Florida, are perfect examples. Nishikori is already being subject to the suffocating Japanese media (I saw this first-hand in baseball) and uses assumed names in hotels. He has signed a lucrative endorsement deal with Sony and is likely to receive a wild card to the Olympics.

* Watered down fields in the Euro clay court events of the summer could help Younes El Aynoaui in his comeback. At 36, he has already jumped to 151 and some good summer events could put him back in the top 100.

* Amer Delic is returning from a surgery to suppress excess perspiration and won last week’s Carson challenger.

* And the last name that many root for is Taylor Dent, trying one more return from complex back surgery. His first challenger was a first-round loss in Carson.

The most-asked question of 2008, especially from “casual” tennis fans: What’s wrong with Roger Federer?

Watching the Monte Carlo final leaves only one answer: not much.

Yes, Fed lost 7-5, 7-5, more painful after losing a 4-0 lead in the second set. He still can’t beat Rafael Nadal on most clay surfaces (the very damp slow dirt of Hamburg the notable exception.)

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But in this match, Fed moved. He wasn’t a half step from balls he normally reaches with ease, as was the case in Miami. He handled the high backhand Nadal repeatedly forces Roger to play, although if there was a problem, it was the 44 Federer unforced errors proving that he didn’t have the needed consistency, especially on his backhand.

There seemed to be no joy for Roger as he watched his second set lead disappear. Despite having his backhand relentlessly attacked, Federer was let down by his forehand. Roger tried aggression, playing many points from the baseline in while Nadal occupied familiar territory 8-10 feet behind the baseline.

It didn’t matter because Nadal is as supremely confident on clay as Federer is on grass.

Nadal is a spring star; he loves the clay and seems to expend so much energy in establishing his excellence on it that he arrives to the hard courts low on fuel.

But for the next 5 weeks, we watch a clay court master. And Roger, who appeared more vigorous than he did in March on the US hard courts, still confronts the reality that his best Roland Garros hope is someone else derailing Rafa.

* * *

* One sidelight from Monte Carlo is another small sign of the brewing battle between Federer and Novak Djokovic. During the first set of their semi, Federer, the most silent great player since Bjorn Borg, turned and told the Djokovic camp to “be quiet.” The words from Federer were stunning and another example what is perceived by Federer as a lack of respect from the world #3.

*Great interview with Federer in Inside Tennis by editor Bill Simons. Federer talks candidly about his admiration for Nadal’s game, glosses over Djokovic and admits his reliance on Mirka Vavrinec for her support. By the way, Inside Tennis is a must-read for the serious pro tennis fan. Long published in the Bay Area, IT has just started editions in New York and Atlanta.

*Guillermo Coria lost in the first round of Barcelona. His appearance is a positive as Coria has been relegated to Challengers in the last year. But a protected ranking placed him in the Barca field though Coria still is hampered by the “yips” on his serve. Just four years ago, he held 2 match points at Roland Garros. Now, ranked 808, Coria simply tries to win a match.