Ted Robinson’s Matchpoints

PIck up a Sunday paper in London and the first 7 pages of every sports section are Andy Murray. There is a dissection of his entourage, a team of 7 that replaced the solo coaching of Brad Gilbert. There are columns from his mum and big brother, a doubles player of moderate success.

Being a prominent sporting figure in these parts is lucrative. After all, there is little competition in that arena.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

Winning Wimbledon, though, would make Andy Murray a sporting hero.

And what’s funny is that his game might allow him, and a nation, to dream.

Murray has always had the talent, now he has some sound grass -court experience, and finally, he seems to have grown into his body and out of his immaturity. His Saturday win over Tommy Haas featured high level play on grass, including the short variety that endears Murray to all who truly love the game.
 
What struck me was his body language- it was less mopy, less Gumby-shouldered, less negative. A wise person recently commented that the difference with John McEnroe was that John used anger as fuel. It was often a positive for John while Murray seemed to drag himself down through his behavior.

Now, Murray looks and acts like a man who believes he can someday become a British hero. Perhaps not now, with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in their prime, but someday soon.
 
Nadal followed form with a decisive win over Nicolas Kiefer – after a first set in which the over-30 Kiefer turned bacvk the clock. He struck serves in the mid-130’s, moved adeptly and struck the ball with significant pace. Pushed to a tiebreak, Rafa delivered the goods, then broke Kiefer’s spirit in the next two sets. A potential Nadal-Murray quarter is still a delicious thought
 
I lamented here how frustrating it is to pull for James Blake. Perhaps Richard Gasquet is that man for the French. He bails on Davis Cup, wanting no part of an indoor match with Andy Roddick. He bails on Roland Garros, the tournament where he clearly cannot handle the pressure. But at Wimbledon, he is a different player, again in the round of 16 and a legit threat to disrupt the Nadal-Murray match. Wimbledon is to Gasquet what the US Open is to Blake, their one major to shine.
 
Jelena Jankovic wanders through the first week in anonymity, although her third-round win owned a share of drama. A hyper-extended knee hampered, followed by a tape job that hampered Jankovic enough to cause her to remove it in the third set. She is always injured, always bandaged and always calling trainers on-court. Yet she is still No. 2 in the world and still a darkhorse threat in Week 2.
 
Monday is Williams day. But I hope that Bethanie Mattek seizes the moment to make people talk about her tennis rather than her wardrobe.

Thursday was my arrival to the AELTC. Walking the grounds during the early afternoon, I was repeatedly struck by why Wimbledon matters. “The Queue”, yes it has it’s own official name, stretched through a neighboring golf course for nearly a mile, composed of tennis fans willing to wait hours for a grounds pass, simply a means to enter the gates.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

Does it work? As I walked to “Henman Hill”, a grassy slope thta fronts a huge TV screen named for the throngs that gathered to watch Tim Henman’s annual Wimbledon saga, I saw queue tickets laying on the ground. They were winners — people who were rewarded for their wait, likely an overnight stay, with early passes on to the grounds.

There is a new Court 2, the concrete shell complete awaiting the finishing touches for Wimbledon 2009. From its looks, it will rival the Roland Garros “Bullring” as a favorite for those who like intimate settings.

After an hour of cruising courts, watching doubles and amazed by the focus of players who serve and play while spectators chat and stroll just a few feet away, I happened upon Court 3 where James Blake was playing Rainer Schuettler.

Blake was in a struggle, facing a set point to go down 2 sets. He saved the set point, survived the tiebreak and went on to win the third. I left feeling Blake had secured the match.

And that’s when the day took a dark turn.

Within hours, Blake had blown the match, another inexplicable and disheartening for a player so liked and respected yet unable to deliver the goods in the big ones.

Schuettler has been on the fringes of the sport for years. How can a journeyman rally to knock out a top-10 player? Perhaps the answer came from a knowledgeable tennis man, whose identity must be protected, that said to me as we stood together watching Blake, “He has overachieved. He’s just not THAT good.”
 
Within moments came the stunning word of Maria Sharapova’s loss. The British papers, when not obsessing over Andy Murray, drool over Maria thus they are deprived of major strorylines. And the truth is that Sharapova has not seriously threatened to win here since her stunning 2004 title.
 
The coup de grace was Roddick falling to Janko Tipsarevic. The Serb is a fine player, witness his 5-set classic with Federer at Australia in January. But the nagging question for me is why Andy could not break the Serb’s serve in four sets. How can anyone expect Roddick to claim another major or even threaten the Big 3 if he can’t make a dent on another man’s serve?
 
Lots of questions I admit. More answers after I sense the aftermath of Thursday’s wipeout on the grounds Friday.

The stat came in the third set of Rafa Nadal’s first-round win over Andreas Beck. After nine service games, Nadal had lost a total of 8 points.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

It reminded me of last year’s Wimbledon final – through four-and-a-half sets, Nadal’s serve had been broken once. By the best player on the planet. On grass. With one ace.

There is the essence of Nadal. He doesn’t blast serves. He doesn’t win a free set with aces as Roger Federer did in last year’s classic five-setter.

Nadal just holds serve.

How? I keep recalling Johnny Mac’s statement last July that Nadal was the modern-day Bjorn Borg, the player who won matches through physical play — the player that John remembered as being “impossible to get a ball past.”

And there is an apt description of Nadal, even on grass where he hugs the baseline.

* * *

Our wait for an American to make a 2008 push continues. Sam Querrey, John Isner and Donald Young (to fellow American Jesse Levine) all lost in the first round. Young has lost first round in both Paris and Wimbledon — same with Querrey, although he drew Federer in Paris.

Isner had a tough draw at Wimby with Ernests Gulbis, but as some point one of the young Americans needs to win some tough matches.

Like Wayne Odesnik taking out Guillermo Canas in Paris or Bobby Reynolds winning first round at Wimbledon.

* * *

Well done by Lindsey Davenport in overcoming a significant leg injury that required sophisticated taping. Davenport was pushed to the third set by an anonymous European but managed to call on her classic ball striking to survive. Her third round, against Elena Dementieva, could be tough.

* * *

Great Britain’s hope is that Andy Murray can reach his first slam quarter where he would likely meet Nadal. Murray comes across in interviews as calmer than the player derailed by “court rage” in the past. Can he handle, as Tim Henman did so well, the heat of a country’s intense focus?

The grass is pristine on the first day of Wimbledon. Pure green for one day a year, before the relentless baseline game that marks this era of tennis creates brown dust at both ends of Centre Court.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

I thought of that as I watched Roger Federer easily move through his first-round match Monday. Seven years ago Federer’s moment of arrival was a Centre Court upset of Pete Sampras, a match that featured a heavy dose of serve and volley play from Roger.

As is well known, Federer claims he has no need to use that style now, so easily has he won five straight Wimbledons. Will Rafa Nadal or perhaps Novak Djokovic force him to change?

Federer gave several interviews Monday and stood firm against any line of questioning that suggested a hangover from the French final. The moment Fed walked off the court after his beating by Rafa, Roger said he bade the clay farewell for 11 months. And in that farewell went any impact of that match.

I tend to believe Federer. If there is a carryover, Federer will feel its full impact next spring. If the two meet again on clay, Roger will know the feeling of being a significant underdog with the need to prove himself in a way unknown for a 12-time Slam champion.

But Wimbledon is Roger’s until beaten. Rafa came close last July, but all that earned him was a second runner-up plate.

Disappointing day for Sam Querrey. The big serve would seem to bode well for his chances at Wimbledon but the American fell in four sets to Juan Carlos Ferrero. Querrey says he is uncomfortable on grass and feels veterans have a huge advantage playing on the surface used only one month a year.

Ivo Karlovic lost in the first round for the fourth consecutive year, stunning for the 6-foot-10 (208 centimeters) Croat with the huge serve.

So, I wonder – if Querrey and Karlovic are early KOs, has the impact of grass lessened? Does the grass court game play differently than a generation ago?

Rafa Nadal stood on the grass of the Queen’s Club in London, 7 days after winning his fourth consecutive French Open, and lifted a championship trophy. Seven days after reestablishing his dominance on clay, Rafa beat Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic on grass.

He may not win Wimbledon this year, but no one should doubt Nadal’s abilities on grass.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

In the Roddick match, Nadal was the better man on grass. That’s a stunning statement, I admit, and Roddick owns the dominant serve that always gives him a “puncher’s chance” (John McEnroe’s fitting words) at Wimbledon, but it was Nadal who moved more smoothly, volleyed with great touch and served well enough.

Greg Rusedski commented for BBC on the match and noted that while Roddick moves well laterally, Nadal is better moving forward, the necessary quality to succeed on grass.

I watched NBC’s replay of much of last year’s Wimbledon final during the French Open. What I had forgotten: Nadal broke Roger Federer’s serve more than Roger broke Rafa’s serve. During the match, John and I kept mentioning how stunned we were by that fact. And if Rafa had converted any of the now-infamous 4 break points in the fifth set, he may well have lifted the trophy.

The draw is due Friday and will always contain some intrigue, notably on which side Djokovic lands. But after watching London, and I’m sure Federer noted the results as he won the Halle warm-up, Nadal is no longer a surprise to win Wimbledon.

Speechless – that’s the state Rafa Nadal left us in Sunday. No one, anywhere at anytime, could have imagined Roger Federer rendered so impotent. It was impossible to conceive of the great Federer so helpless on any surface, even the red clay Nadal so loves.

What Rafa sent Sunday was a strong bulletin, if not a warning: don’t anoint Fed yet. Don’t believe anyone will beat me (Nadal) on this red clay. Don’t think there is kryptonite anywhere.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

Indeed, Nadal played the role of Clark Kent Sunday, changing into his Superman pirate shorts and sleeveless short before taking the court where he has never lost.

Federer talked the role, speaking confidently of his improvement on clay and the design given him by Jose Higueras. If true, there needs to be a serious recalibration by Federer for the stark truth is that the gap between himself and Nadal on clay has widened in the last year.

Nadal is sick, a heaving mass of muscle who moves like a dancer on the tricky surface and strikes winning shots from the most defensive of positions. At the very moment one thinks he has Nadal beaten, he strikes a winning blow.

Nadal is James Bond… or Jack Bauer.

So the more relevant question, for there is neither logic nor hope in wondering about Federer’s chances on clay, is whether the pendulum swings on grass. As unnatural as the surface is for Rafa, he solves it more definitively than Roger does clay. Rafa has come closer to winning Wimbledon than Roger at Roland Garros. And there is every reason to wonder if this is the year that Fed’s reign at SW19 could be toppled.

Novak Djokovic is a contender, although still a step behind the big 2 on clay and grass. Rafa has yet to prove he can play on the hardcourts, particularly after Wimbledon, but there is no one yet able to disrupt the Dynamic Duo in this spring doubleheader. Yes, even Andy Roddick has been able to insert himself into the equation, although it would be nice to see America’s No. 1 do so when few expect.

The great Bjorn Borg watched in awe as Nadal thoroughly dismantled one of the game’s greatest. Nadal is clearly Borg’s equal on clay and Fed has matched the Swede’s five straight Wimbledons. Is it clear that we are enjoying the greatest rivalry in the history of this great game?

Once again, tennis’ premier duo has made history. Sunday, when Rafa and Roger play for the French championship, it will be the first time that the same two men have played three straight years for a Slam title.

Honestly, it’s hard to see a different outcome. For much of Friday afternoon, Rafa Nadal neutered Novak Djokovic. The young Serb, whose abundant confidence has pricked some nerves (see: Federer, Roger), was dazed and confused. He wandered around Court Centrale with slumped shoulders and no apparent remedy.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

That’s the measure of Nadal; he gets in the head of foes like no other player on clay. He administers a physical beating that takes a huge mental toll.

To do that to Djokovic, who just a month ago took a set from Rafa in Hamburg and was playing for the No. 2 world rank, was staggering. Preparing for his semi, Roger could not help but have noticed.

After all, Fed was seen practicing Thursday with a LEFTY! That’s right, the day before his semi with Gael Monfils, Fed imported a young French lefty, undoubtedly to prepare for Rafa.

So, Rafa is in Roger’s head. How could it be otherwise when the clay docket reads 8-1 Nadal? Can Roger change the trend? Does Jose Higueras have a formula for success that a hundred players/coaches have failed to find?

Federer did not inspire such confidence against Monfils. The young Frenchman took a first set spanking but did not fold, spindle or mutilate. And Roger seemed surprisingly unable to deliver the knockout blow.

In the fourth set, as Monfils gamely fought off a pair of match points serving at 4-5, Mats Wilander commented on EuroSport that he was not sure where Federer’s head was. I have never once wondered about Fed’s focus or shot selection in a match as important as a Slam semi. Yet, here was a champion making the point. Was Fed looking too closely at Nadal? If so, another measure is seen of Rafa’s impact.

My bottom line: there has not been 1 moment during these 2 weeks when Rafa has demonstrated one iota of vulnerability. Not once has he given anyone reason to believe he will do anything but win his fourth straight French. The great Bjorn Borg will be in attendance to see his feat matched.

Talked to Pete Holtermann of the ATP, along with Greg Sharko a wise tennis mind that is an underappreciated asset in selling the sport to the American media. I asked Pete for his names to watch this summer. His thoughts:

* Robby Ginepri’s boost in the rankings, to between 50-60, helps him with direct entries and to relax in those events. The last time that happened, in the summer/fall of 2005, Robby shot to 15 in the world.

* The Olympics will affect the USOS in many ways; one being depleted fields in the August events. That could help Donald Young and John Isner rack up points in events like Washington, Los Angeles and New Haven.

* Then there are those fighting their way out of the Challengers. Tall South African Kevin Anderson and teen Kei Nishikori, from Japan/Florida, are perfect examples. Nishikori is already being subject to the suffocating Japanese media (I saw this first-hand in baseball) and uses assumed names in hotels. He has signed a lucrative endorsement deal with Sony and is likely to receive a wild card to the Olympics.

* Watered down fields in the Euro clay court events of the summer could help Younes El Aynoaui in his comeback. At 36, he has already jumped to 151 and some good summer events could put him back in the top 100.

* Amer Delic is returning from a surgery to suppress excess perspiration and won last week’s Carson challenger.

* And the last name that many root for is Taylor Dent, trying one more return from complex back surgery. His first challenger was a first-round loss in Carson.

Five thoughts from QF Wednesday in Paris:

* Watching the arrival of young players, especially those who have been expected, is enjoyable. Dinara Safina has carried the burden of her brother’s legacy: million dollar talent, 10-cent head. Nothing much has happened to dispute the notion until this week. She has saved match points in consecutive rounds, including a memorable two-hand backhand winner against Maria Sharapova that could be a career-changing shot. Now she has a tough but winnable semi against Svetlana Kuznetsova. Who is stronger of nerve in the moment will play Saturday.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

* Gael Monfils is the French Open answer to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a wildly talented player prone to injury who is arriving in a major. For the final 45 minutes of his QF win over David Ferrer, Monfils looked unbeatable. Sculpted physique, intense emotion and immense athletic ability all combined at the right moment, rendering Ferrer helpless. If Monfils can repeat any of this play, Friday’s semi with Federer will be interesting.

* How can Nadal-Djokovic, featuring the 3-time defending champ playing against his rival trying to overtake him for the #2 world rank, be a warm up match? The French will most certainly schedule Monfils-Federer as the second match, affording Monfils the prime-time slot for spectators and TV. It’s fair from a competitive standpoint as Rafa and Novak are playing with 2 days of rest, but unusual for a player who has never lost at Roland Garros.

* Doubles note: what the heck is going on in the men’s world? I haven’t heard of 3 of the 4 teams in the semis. This is worse than a bad soap opera: Dlouhy/Vizner reach the finals of 2 slams in 2007 but split because Dlouhy wants to focus on singles (Dlouhy is still playing doubles with Leander Paes, they lost in the third round while Vizner teams with Martin Damm and lost first round), Mark Knowles was dumped by Daniel Nestor despite team success and Nestor is in the semis with Zimonjic, the powerful Bjorkman-Mirnyi team split and neither man has succeeded with new partners, while the Bryans stand alone as a united team but were stunned in the quarters. None of this touches the bizarre Paes-Mahesh Bhupathi saga. Successful partners for years, after a lengthy split, Paes has sought a peace treaty so the pair can play in the Olympics, but Bhupathi has thus far been unresponsive.

* Interesting opinions from Mats Wilander: he likes Jankovic over Ivanovic Thursday. To Mats, Jelena’s defense tips the scale, Valid thought but Ivanovic has played so authoritatively and Jankovic appears to be held together by adhesive tape. It is the women’s match of this RG.

A little tennis and a little culture from Roland Garros:

Not a great day for tennis - Serbia was the winner as the three standouts advanced to the semis. Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic won easily while talented Ernests Gulbis tested Novak Djokovic. Clearly seen, though, was that Gulbis must overcome a lack of training in Latvia. A hurry-up dose of experience and wisdom will give him the chance to be a Top 10 player.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS Feed

Big loser was Nicolas Almagro. Strong clay court results in the anonymity of lower tier tournaments do not translate into success at a Slam. Hate to be this strong but Almagro’s effort was pitiful. Court Chatrier is the biggest clay court stage in the world and he simply did not compete at anything approaching an acceptable level. Too often did Almagro stand still and watch Rafa Nadal winners fly by.

Can Nadal be better on clay? In the last four rounds, he has lost 17 games in 12 sets.

Junior focus: Ryan Harrison, 16, lost in 3 sets but in a Tennis Channel interview sounded amazingly poised. And he voiced the truth that must change for the US to ever truly hope of succeeding at Roland Garros — the clay here is not at all like the clay Harrison had played on at home. We must offer our best players the chance to train on red clay.

Pat McEnroe offered an interesting take on Melanie Oudin, the No. 1 seed in RG’s junior girls competition. Pat raved about her fight. It’s necessary for Oudin, from the Atlanta area, stands just 5-4. Unless she finds a height burst, it will be exceedingly difficult to project Oudin as a champion, but a good pro career is within reach due to her powerful ball striking and exceptional competitiveness.

Wednesday:
Women’s quarters find Svetlana Kuznetova facing first-timer Kaia Kanepi. Kuznetsova has the experience and the ability to withstand Kanepi’s power. Dinara Safina tries to reach her first Slam semi as she faces Elena Dementieva. But Elena has experience on her side in this matchup and has reduced her double fault problems. Is Dementieva ever favored in a big match?

Roger Federer is placed on the second court for his quarter with Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzo is playing more wisely on clay, an endorsement of coach Larry Stefanki, but history (10-1 Fed) and weather (heavy and damp) favors Federer.

Can Gael Monfils handle the moment? He’ll have a huge vibe in his favor but a tireless opponent across the net in David Ferrer. Ferrer should be too consistent for the erratic Monfils.

Culture notes:
My hotel TV carries a dozen Arabic channels, including Al Jazeera TV. The English-speaking channel has a US studio, incredibly clear pictures and the startling sights to an American viewer of women anchors in Muslim head wear.

BBC News, also available here, covers the US elections as if it were theirs. Interesting to frame the coverage here with Bill Clinton’s eternal popularity on this continent.

The lamentable state of our news coverage is evident at all times here. Multiple networks available here, including CNN International, cover Zimbabwe, the Pakistani suicide bombing and the aftermath of the China earthquake far more comprehensively than anything most of us see at home.

Headlines emphasize Maria Sharapova’s loss in Paris. But Monday wasn’t about Sharapova losing; it was about the arrival of Dinara Safina.

The Golden Girl is an uncomfortable clay courter, lacking the graceful movement so necessary and trying to win with fight and grit.

Check out MediaZone Tennis | E-mail Ted at MediaZone’s Mailbag | Sign up for my RSS FeedIn the first set, when Sharapova saved 6 break points and then 2 set points in a tiebreak, it looked to be another match that Maria would win on effort over excellence.

But, then Safina lifted her play for the first time in a Slam moment. This player of immense skill and equal measure self-doubt began to turn things her way when she appeared down and out.

The single moment that may elevate Safina to a top 10 player and legit Slam contender came on Sharapova’s match point. Safina unloaded a fierce two-hand backhand up the line to stay alive. And eventually Safina leveled the match with a tiebreak win.

Third set belonged to Safina in its entirety. No longer could Sharapova bull her way into a win, for on the other side stood a player who had erased her doubts. Safina closed out the match 6-2 to reach her third Slam quarter.

But this time no one (and Mats Wilander publicly proclaimed this) would be shocked if Safina could join her brother as a champ. The field is that open, although Sveta Kuznetsova has a Slam on her resume and Ana Ivanovic is playing like one as well.

David Ferrer is the intriguing man of the day. He rallied from 2-1 down to KO Radek Stepanek in 5 sets. One of the most unassuming top 5 players to ever play, Ferrer has placed himself into the realm of players who could challenge the big boys on clay. A Spaniard who openly admits he patterned himself after Lleyton Hewitt (who he beat in the third round), Ferrer is fit (consecutive 5-set wins), gives away nothing and changes direction on the ball better than anyone on tour.

Sounds a lot like the Jose Higueras formula for victory on clay? If Ferrer can outlast the wildly talented and erratic Gael Monfils in the quarters, a Fed-Ferrer semi could be an interesting warmup for Nadal-Djokovic.